This season I had a lot of success betting on NFL player props. During the regular season I went 94-68 with a 19 percent ROI – a pretty good haul for my first season of betting. Recently, with the addition of my NFL and NBA player props tool, I’ve started sharing more of the bets I’ve been making to show people the true value that can be had with these tools (and in the player prop market). With that, here is a look at the player props I’ve already made for Wild Card weekend, with some short analysis and, in parentheses, the value identified by the player props tool with the projections I used (note: most of these bets were made Wednesday evening and I will try to have more timely posting in the future).
Russell Wilson U23.5 Pass Completions (+102, 20% value): Russell Wilson is no longer cooking. It’s as simple as that. And the Rams having a really good pass defense. And the Seahawks leaning more on the run lately. And that he has under 23.5 completions in seven of his last eight games. At plus odds, that’s enough to convince me to take it.
Devin Singletary O29.5 Rushing Yards (-112, 35% value): This line seems quite low for Singletary, who has averaged 45 rushing yards per game (excluding Week 17 in which he didn’t play a full snap share). The line is likely due to the Colts having one of the best rushing defenses in the league, but I’ll bet on Singletary being able to turn double-digit carries (which he’s gotten nine times this season) into a decent rushing day.
Lamar Jackson O1.5 Pass TDs (+135, 22% value): In the three games since Jackson took a shit against the Cleveland Browns, he has thrown multiple pass touchdowns in each. This Titans defense is also atrocious and I’d expect the Ravens to have their way with them. The concern is that Baltimore can be extremely successful on the ground and Baltimore doesn’t have to throw, but Jackson threw three touchdowns last week in a game in which Baltimore ran for 400+ yards.
Derrick Henry U120.5 Rushing Yards (-112, 23% value): Look, it’s tough to fade a guy who just ran for 2,000 yards and shows no sign of slowing down. But 120 yards is still an extremely high line for rushing yards, so I’m playing the odds a bit, even though he’s crossed this threshold in five of his last seven games. Also baked into this is my assumption that Baltimore takes a lead early and the Titans face a similar game script to what they had in Green Bay a couple of weeks ago when Henry only totaled 60 rushing yards.