This season I had a lot of success betting on NFL player props. During the regular season I went 94-68 with a 19 percent ROI – a pretty good haul for my first season of betting. Recently, with the addition of my NFL and NBA player props tool, I’ve started sharing more of the bets I’ve been making to show people the true value that can be had with these tools (and in the player prop market). With that, here is a look at the player props I’ve already made for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, with some short analysis and, in parentheses, the value identified by the player props tool with the projections I used.
Aaron Rodgers O9.5 Rushing Yards (-112, 23% value): The MVP favorite has had a rejuvenated year and is playing his best ball in a couple of years. Typically, with quarterback rushing props, we’re looking for strong opposing pass rushes as they will force the quarterback out of the pocket and use his legs. The Rams are expecting Aaron Donald to play, and that’s enough of a pass rush for me. On top of that, Rodgers has hit this line in five of his last seven games.
Josh Allen U302.5 Passing Yards (-112, 22% value): Josh Allen is another quarterback that’s been playing at an MVP level, so it’s tough to fade him in this situation. But, 302.5 yards is a high total (the third highest among QBs this week) and Allen has shown his ability to move the ball with his legs. Before this year, Allen didn’t have a single 300-yard passing game, but has nine this year (including the playoffs), which means he has eight games with fewer than 300 – so it’s essentially a coin flip. Finally, as I pointed out on Twitter, this line is at 296.5 over on FanDuel, so it’s six yards of value we’re getting.
Malcolm Brown O12.5 Rushing Yards (-118, 90% value): Yes, you read that right. With the projections I’m using I see a 90% value on this prop. While Cam Akers has looked like a workhorse back of late, Darrell Henderson remains on IR, leaving Malcolm Brown to be the secondary option. Even though he’s averaged just under four carries per game in the last nine games, he can get there on a small workload since the Packers’ rushing defense is nothing to write home about. Green Bay ranked 18th in rushing DVOA during the regular season and I believe Sean McVay will try to exploit this weakness on Saturday.
The following were added Saturday afternoon:
Tom Brady O2.5 Passing TDs (+166, 16% value): If the Buccaneers want to succeed against the Saints’ defense, they’re going to have to do it through the air. Granted, Tampa Bay has been trounced by New Orleans in their two matchups this season, but the Bucs have been on a hot streak lately, and that includes Brady. Since the blowout loss to the Saints, Brady has thrown for multiple touchdowns in every game and has recorded at least three in four of those eight games. Give me plus money on the GOAT in the playoffs and I’ll take it 10 times out of 10.
Nick Chubb O12.5 Receiving Yards (-115, 6% value): The value here doesn’t look outstanding, but I’ve made a bet on Chubb’s receiving total several times over the past couple of months and it’s rarely hurt me. Since returning from injury, Chubb has been much more involved as a receiving threat. He didn’t record a single reception in the first two games back and in the Week 17 matchup against the Steelers. However, he’s recorded at least 16 receiving yards and is averaging 2.8 receptions per game in every other game since returning. Everyone expects the Browns to have to pass a lot, as do I, and I think Chubb will reach this total once again.